FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.09007

 Kijun-Sen- 1.09183

EURUSD pared some of its gains after upbeat US economic data. It hits an intraday low of 1.08553 and is currently trading around 1.08611.

The US economy has expanded at an annualized pace of 2.1% in the first quarter, above the estimate of 1.40%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped to 239000 for the week ended June 25, the biggest drop since Oct 2021.

Major economic data for the day

US Core PCE index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Revised UoM Consumer sentiment  (2:00 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 86.80% from 71.90% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield surged more than 4% after upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -102.50% from -94.8%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break below 1.08500 confirms intraday bearishness; a decline to 1.080/1.0760 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0900. The breach above targets 1.0950/1.100.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Bullish

  Directional movement index – Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around 1.0800 with SL  around 1.0760 for a TP of 1.100/1.1090.