Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.09876
Kijun-Sen- 1.09771
EURUSD pared some of its gains made after mixed US Non-Farm payroll. It hits a high of 1.10419 and is currently trading around 1.09927.
The US economy has added 187000 jobs in Jul, below the forecast of 205k. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% from 3.6% the previous month. Average hourly earnings m/m increased to 0.40% vs an estimate of 0.30%.
Major economic data for the week
Aug 7th, 2023, FOMC member Harker speech (12:15 pm GMT)
Aug 10th, 2023, US CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Aug 11th, 2023, US PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 86.50% from 80% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some gains after the weak US NFP. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -75 from -110%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0950 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0900/ 1.0850/1.0800 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.100. The breach above targets 1.1050/1.1100.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Neutral
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.100 with SL around 1.1050 for a TP of 1.0800.
