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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.09715
Kijun-Sen- 1.09854
EURUSD trading higher ahead of US CPI data. It hits a high of 1.10262 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.10210
US headline inflation is expected to jump to 3.3%, compared to a 3% annual gain the previous month. Any drastic jump will push the US dollar index further higher.
The revision of the windfall tax by the Italian government on banks also supports Euro at lower levels.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 86.50% from 86% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield trades lower ahead of weak US CPI. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -79.60% from -110%.
The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA, below 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0900 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0830/1.0760 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.100. The breach above targets 1.1050/1.1100.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Neutral
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1050 with SL around 1.1105 for a TP of 1.0800.
