Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.08268
Kijun-Sen- 1.08585
EURUSD declined sharply despite mixed US Nonfarm payroll. It hit a low of 1.07720 and is currently trading around 1.07968.
The US economy has added 187000 in August, compared to a forecast of 170000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% vs. the forecast of 3.6%. US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in August vs. 47 expected.
Major economic data for the week
Sep 6th, 2023, BOC rate statement (2:00 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI
Sep 5th, 2023, RBA cash rate (4:30 am GMT)
Sep 7th, 2023, Unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)
Sep 8th, 2023, Canadian employment change (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 93% from 80% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered slightly despite mixed US NFP data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -50% from -86.4%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0760 confirms intraday bearishness, a decline to 1.0700/1.0660 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0850. The breach above targets 1.0900/1.0965/1.1000.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0828-30 with SL around 1.0880 for a TP of 1.0660.
