FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.08268

 Kijun-Sen- 1.08585

EURUSD  declined sharply despite mixed US Nonfarm payroll. It hit a low of 1.07720 and is currently trading around 1.07968.

The US economy has added 187000 in August, compared to a forecast of 170000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% vs. the forecast of 3.6%. US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in August vs. 47 expected.

Major economic data for the week

Sep 6th, 2023, BOC rate statement (2:00 pm GMT)

 US ISM services PMI

Sep 5th, 2023,  RBA cash rate (4:30 am GMT)

Sep 7th, 2023, Unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Sep 8th, 2023, Canadian employment change (12:30 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 93% from 80% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield recovered slightly despite mixed US NFP data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -50% from -86.4%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break below 1.0760 confirms intraday bearishness, a decline to 1.0700/1.0660  is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0850. The breach above targets 1.0900/1.0965/1.1000.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Bearish

  Directional movement index – Bearish

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0828-30 with SL around 1.0880 for a TP of 1.0660.