Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.04918
Kijun-Sen- 1.05386
EURUSD is trading near a year low in hopes of another 25 bpbs rate hike by the Fed. It hit a low of 1.0460 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.04873.
US private sector employment rose 89000 in Sep, compared to a forecast of 154000. US ISM services PMI rose 53.6 in Sep vs .estimate of 53.50.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov decreased to 76.40% from 77.50% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield declined more than 3.5% on mixed US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -32% from -75%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, below 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.04480 confirms further bearishness. A decline to 1.0400/1.0340 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0550, and any breach above targets is 1.0600/1.0660.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0548-550 with SL around 1.0600 for a TP of 1.0400.
