Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.05593
Kijun-Sen- 1.05957
EURUSD showed a minor pullback after Fed monetary policy. It hit a high of 1.06100 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.05984.
FOMC has kept its rates unchanged at 5.50% as expected. It has maintained the current pace of QT. The central bank said that inflation is elevated and has kept doors open to hike rates depending on economic developments.
US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 46.70 in Oct, compared to a forecast of 49. Private sector payroll surged 113000 in Oct vs. Estimate of 149000.
Major Economic data for the day
Nov 2nd, 2023, BOE monetary policy (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Dec increased to 80.40% from 68.90% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield lost its shine after Fed policy. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -23.2% from -75%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below confirms further bearishness. A decline to 1.0480/1.0440 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0600, and any breach above targets is 1.0700/1.0760. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – bullish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0598-60 with SL around 1.0700 for a TP of 1.0440
