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Trump’s Tariff Talk Rattles EUR/USD Dynamics
EUR/USD recovered above 1.0500 after weak US economic data.It hit a high of 1.05438 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.05261.
In November 2024, the U.S. private sector added 146,000 jobs, which is below the expected 163,000 and down from a revised 184,000 in October. The education and health services sector saw the most growth with 50,000 new jobs, while construction added 30,000 and trade, transportation, and utilities gained 28,000. However, manufacturing lost 26,000 jobs. The ISM Services PMI is expected to show continued growth in the services sector after reaching its highest level since August 2022 in October.
The US treasury yield declined sharply after the dismal US economic data.
Technical Analysis Overview
The pair remained above both short-term (34 and 55-4H EMA) and long-term (200-4H MA) moving averages.
Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance Levels: Near-term resistance is at 1.0550. A breakout above this could push the pair towards targets at 1.0600/1.0660/1.070/1.0760/$1.0835, and possibly 1.0900. Major bullish momentum is expected only if prices surpass 1.1000, which would open the door to 1.1070 and 1.1150.
Support Levels: Immediate support is at 1.0490. A drop below this could lead to further declines to 1.0435/1.0400/1.0370/1.0330/1.0240.
Indicator Insights
Indicator Insights (4-Hour Chart): The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicates a bullish trend, while the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) suggests a neutral outlook.
Suggested Trading Strategy
Given the weak sentiment in technical indicators, a sensible strategy would be to sell on rallies around the 1.0550 mark, with a stop-loss at 1.0600 and a target price of 1.0435 for potential gains.
