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Ichimoku analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.08508
Kijun-Sen- 1.06590
EURUSD was one of the worst performers the previous week and lost more than 150 pips on board-based US dollar buying. ECB VP de Guindos said "We have now entered the home stretch of our monetary policy tightening path," also putting pressure on Euro at higher levels. It hits a low of 1.08444 and is currently trading around 1.08728.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined by 9% to 57.7 in May, the lowest level in six months.
Major economic data for the Week
May 15th, 2023, US empire state manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)
May 16th, 2023, US retail sales (12:30 pm GMT)
May 18th, 2023, US unemployment benefits (12:30 pm GMT)
Existing Home Sales (2 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 16.6% from 15.5% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trading in a narrow range for the past week. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -53% from -108%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.08300 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0800/1.0740 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0900. The breach above targets 1.09300/1.1000.
Indicator (Weekly chart)
CCI – Bullish
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0900 with SL around 1.0960 for a TP of 1.0750.
