The pair is likely to evidence bearish swings, while plotting both daily and intraday charts we come across swings show the tendency to touch base trend line. But we see some sharp bounces as well the moment it touches this level.
We anticipate in a process of completion of this pattern (falling wedge) more dips are underway synthesizing with other bearish indications.
Leading oscillators (RSI and stochastic) indicate downward convergence with price slumps.
While the current spot FX is sliding below lagging indicator (10DMA) on daily chart that signifies these price dips to prevail further.
However, the cable's IVs of ATM contracts are still perceived to be the second least within next 1w-1m time frame among G7 space (at around 6-7%), you can observe implied volatilities from the diagram:
While GBPUSD Spot FX is at 1.5002,
1% OTM put (strike at 1.4850) = 7.67%
1% OTM call (strike at 1.5150) = 7.10%, thereby no much disparity exists.
Thus, the risk reversals of ATM contracts of 1 month maturities have no significant disparities between at the money and out of the money instruments (compare delta risk reversal with above computation of OTM instruments).
Hence, pondering over the breakout of range bounded trend but sliding slightly downwards, and FX OTC market sentiments for this pair we recommend shorting near month futures for target at 1.4950 with a stop loss at 1.5050, thereby observed risk reward ratio at 1:1.
