Fitch will review its Poland rating today. We expect the rating (A-) and outlook (stable) to be left unchanged. There is a small risk that the outlook will be lowered to negative, in line with what other agencies have for Poland.

But even if Fitch chose to do this, the significant impact from this event on EURPLN or Polish bond spreads are not foreseen but in our view, the risks surrounding Polish politics are now well known,  and this may keep adding pressure on Polish zloty.

The upcoming policy roadmap much clearer than six months ago, even though the policies may be controversial.

Well, keeping the above factors in mind, it is advisable to go long in 1M (0.5%) OTM 0.38 delta call while writing 2W (1%) ITM call with positive theta and delta closer to zero (both sides use European style options), this call spread option trading strategy can be constructed at net credit and is recommended when the EURPLN spot price is anticipated to drop moderately in the near term and spikes up in long term.

Trader expects that the underlying spot FX price would drop to ITM strikes on expiration and thereafter bounce back again.

Thereby, you are speculating the spot EURPLN’s struggle in the short run by shorting, and lock in any dramatic upside risks caused by event risk in next two months which is especially Brexit fear via longs in OTM strikes which is why we've used diagonal expiries.