Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
The US dollar index pared most of its gains on weak US economic data real GDP came at 4.9% for the third quarter, below the estimate of 5.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 2000 last week vs an estimate of 214K. US Philadelphia manufacturing index declined to -10.5 in Dec vs. 3 expected.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Jan increased to 14.5% from 12.40% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback ahead of the US PCE. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -45.50% from -53.6%.
Major resistance- 102.65/103.20
Major support- 101.70/101.
EURUSD-
EURUSD declined slightly ahead of US PCE data. Any surge in PCE data could have a positive impact on the US dollar.
Major resistance-1.1020,1.1070
Major support- 1.0960,1.0880
Yen-
The yen showed a minor decline after weak Japanese inflation data. Japan's CPI came at 2.5% in Nov y/y below the estimate of 2.9%.
Major Resistance- 143,144
Major support- 141.80,140.70
Pound sterling
The pound sterling consolidating in an arrow range ahead of UK retail sales. Markets anticipate a rate cut by the BOE in the first quarter after weak UK CPI data.
Major Resistance- 1.2700,1.2765
Major support- 1.2600,1.2540
Economic calendar -
Dec 21st, 2023, US Durable goods orders (1:30 pm GMT)
US Core PCE index (1:30 pm GMT)
