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FxWirePro: Forex Daily Update
The US dollar index surged higher after upbeat US inflation data. It hit a high of 105.30 yesterday and is currently trading around 105.14.
The annual CPI rose 3.5% in Mar (the biggest gain since Sep 2023), compared to an estimate of 3.4%. Core CPI surged 0.40% in Mar vs. Estimate of 0.30%.
"Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent," the minutes said.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June increased to 81.40% from 37.70% a week ago.
Major resistance- 105.20/106
Major support- 104.40/103.80
EURUSD-
EURUSD lost its shine ahead of ECB monetary policy. The ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its Apr meeting. The jump in US CPI decreased the chance of a June rate cut by the Fed.
Major resistance-1.0880,1.0935
Major support- 1.0800,1.0720
Yen-
The pair declined slightly on Fx intervention risks. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yishimasa Hayashi said on Thursday, he "won't rule out any steps to respond to excessive FX moves." Any break above 153.50 confirms minor bullishness.
Major Resistance- 153.50,155
Major support- 152,150
Canadian Dollar
USDCAD hit a fresh multi-month high after dovish BOC monetary policy. The central bank kept its rates unchanged and hints at further easing in the coming months.
Resistance- 1.3700,1.3760
Major support- 1.3600,1.3500
