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The US dollar index trades weak ahead of US inflation. It hit a low of 104.52 yesterday and is currently trading around 105.32.
In recent Fed meetings, the US Fed was less hawkish than expected and mentioned there would not be any rate hike in the coming months.
US initial jobless claims rose 22000 to 231k in the week ending May 4th, compared to a forecast of 210k. The weak US jobs renewed the chance of a rate cut by the Fed in June.
Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank should hold rates yearly to tackle inflation.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June increased to 96.5% from 91.6% a week ago.
Major resistance- 105.60/106.50
Major support- 104.50/103.80
Major economic data for the week
May 15th, 2024, US CPI, Core Retail Sales, and Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT).
May 16th, 2024, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT).
EURUSD-
EURUSD gained above 1.07500 on rate cut hopes. It hit a high of 1.07901 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.07703.
DAX hits all-time high after majority preferred for June rate cut. The policy divergence between the Fed and ECB supports the Euro at lower levels.
May 14th, 2024, Germany ZEW economic sentiment (9 am GMT)
May 15th, 2024, Euro Flash GDP (9 am GMT)
Major resistance-1.0820,1.0865
Major support- 1.0720,1.0660
Yen-
The pair has been trading higher on the strong US dollar for the past five days. Hawkish comments from the Fed members push the US dollar higher. Any break above 156 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 156,157
Major support- 153.40,151.85.
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar lost momentum on weak crude oil prices. Any break below 1.3600 confirms further bearishness.
Resistance- 1.3760,1.3800
Major support- 1.3660,1.36000
