• GBP/AUD eased on Monday as investors took a cautious stance towards risk assets as U.S.-Iran talks failed to end in a deal
•Oil prices surged to more than $100 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
• Sterling has tended to suffer when tensions between Washington and Tehran flare, given Britain's dependence on energy imports and the economy's sensitivity to higher fuel costs.
• The Middle East war has pushed energy prices up, raising inflation concerns and weighing on global growth.
• Higher energy prices have led markets to price in potential Bank of England rate hikes, though most brokers still expect no rate increase in 2026.
•Money market futures imply almost two quarter-point rate increases in 2026. Before the war began, investors had expected the BoE to cut rates twice this year...
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9111 (SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9220(50%fib).
• Strong support is seen at 1.8981 (38.2%fib), and break below could take the pair towards 1.8862(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell on around 1.9120 with stop loss of 1.9180 and target price of 1.9060
