• GBP/AUD dipped on Wednesday as investors monitored the fragile Middle East truce and assessed domestic inflation data.
• Resurgence in oil prices over the last week has shifted the policy narrative from potential rate cuts to necessary hikes to stall inflation. Unfortunately, those higher rates would also hurt UK economic growth, creating a drag on sterling.
• The pair is likely to remain on the defensive in the near-term as it grapples with a volatile landscape defined by geopolitical instability and a hawkish shift in domestic monetary expectations.
•The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, marked by uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, have fueled broad USD haven buying, keeping the pound under persistent downward pressure.
..• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9054(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9206(38.2%fib).
• Strong support is seen at 1.8767(23.6%fib), and break below could take the pair towards 1.8667 (Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell on around 1.8900 with stop loss of 1.8950 and target price of 1.8800
