• NZD/USD traded in narrow range on as investors weighed conflicting developments surrounding the Iran conflict and awaited greater clarity on geopolitical risks.
• Market participants remained cautious after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend while also threatening further escalation, keeping demand for safe-haven assets elevated.
• Meanwhile, support for the kiwi from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent hawkish rhetoric has continued to fade.
• NZD/USD is down about 3.5% so far this month, with markets scaling back expectations for additional monetary tightening. Interest rate futures now imply a 62.4% probability of a July RBNZ rate hike, reflecting softer confidence compared with earlier expectations.
• From a technical perspective, the New Zealand dollar has remained under heavy pressure since failing to break above its 55-day moving average earlier this month, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5666(Jan 26th high), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5756(38.2%fib).
• Support is seen at 0.5621(23.6%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5556(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5660 with stop loss of 0.5720 and target price of 0.5600
