• GBP/NZD edged lower on Tuesday as the Middle East conflict drove a surge in oil prices, fuelling worries about inflation and slowing economic growth..
• U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he may end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed, leaving its reopening for later.
• Official data from the ONS confirmed that Britain's economy barely expanded at the end of 2025, adding to the challenge for the government to keep growth on track this year with the Iran war likely to push up inflation and hit demand.
• A BRC survey showed shop price inflation rose in March, putting the Bank of England in focus as it monitors food prices and inflation expectations.
• Investors are betting on two, or possibly three, quarter-point rate hikes by the Bank of England before the end of this year, a sharp reversal from rate cuts seen by traders before the conflict.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.3068 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 2.3225(38.2%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 2.3015(Daily low) and break below could take the pair towards 2.2916(61.8%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 2.3000 with stop loss of 2.2950 and target price of 2.3080
