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Ichimoku Analysis (4-Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1795.69
Kijun-Sen- $1804.28
Gold trades in a narrow range post-Christmas holiday. The overall trend is still bullish as long as $1730 holds. Stock markets across Australia, New Zealand, UK, and Canada closed on account of Christmas/Boxing day. US dollar retreats after hitting a high of 104.53 on Friday as market appetite improves. The yellow metal hits a high of $1806.47 and is currently trading around $1804.94.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102. The near-term resistance is at 104.60/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Feb rose to 31% from 26.10% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield holds above the 200-day MA. Any breach above 3.85% confirms a further up trend. The yield spread between 10 and 2-year narrowed to -59.7 basis points from -85 bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index – Bearish (Positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1780, a break below targets of $1760/$1740/$1720/$1700. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1820, breach above will take it to the next level of $1860/$1900.
It is good to buy on dips around $1778-80 with SL around $1760 for TP of $1825.
