Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1857.05
Kijun-Sen- $1866.80
Gold showed a minor pullback despite hot US inflation CPI for Jan came at 6.4% YOY, above the estimate of 6.2%. It has declined for the seventh consecutive month after peaking at 9.1% in Jun 2022. It hits a low of $1843.50 and is currently trading around $1857.40.
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.50/100.80. The near-term resistance is 104/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb declined to 87.8% from 90.8% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered sharply after mixed US CPI data. Any close above 3.75% targets $3.95%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -86 basis points from -76% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index –Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1840, a break below targets of $1828/$1800. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1880, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1900/$1925/$1950.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1875 with SL around $1900 for TP of $1800.
