Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1845.40
Kijun-Sen- $1851.43
Gold pares some of its gains on upbeat US retail sales data. It grew by 3% in Jan monthly, well above expectations of 1.9%. Core retail sales jumped by 2.3%, from -the 09% previous month. Market eyes US PPI data for further direction. It hits a high of $1844.80 and is currently trading around $1837.92.
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.50/100.80. The near-term resistance is 104/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb jumped to 90.8% from 87.8% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield trades higher on positive US economic data. Any daily close above 3.81% targets $3.95%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -86 basis points from -76% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index –Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1840, a break below targets of $1828/$1800. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1850, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1900/$1925/$1950.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1848-51 with SL around $1871 for TP of $1800.
