Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1969.91
Kijun-Sen- $1964.23
Gold prices recovered slightly and hit a fresh week high despite the easing banking crisis. The board-based US dollar selling and stagnant US treasury yield supported the yellow metal at lower levels. It hits a high of $1984.50 and is currently trading around 1980.65.
US Final GDP grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter to 2.6% vs. the Estimate of 2.7%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the week ended Mar 25th rose by 7000 to 198000, above the estimate of 196000.
Major economic data for the day
Mar 30th, 2023 US Core PCE index (1:30 pm GMT).
Chicago PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.90/101. The near-term resistance is 102.80/103.40/104.20.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in May increased to 50.5% from 27.4% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat after a minor pullback. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -55.2% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1955, a break below targets of $1944/$1935/$1921/$1890.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1966, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2010/$2020.
It is good to buy on dips around $1955 with SL around $1936 for TP of $2000.
