Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2014.07
Kijun-Sen- $2005
Gold prices showed a nice pullback after weak US inflation data. US CPI m/m came at 0.1% in Mar, below the estimate of 0.20%. The yearly inflation rose 5% last month, compared to a forecast of 5.1%. It hits a high of $2028 and is currently trading around $2018.95.
The Fed members in the meeting said that "generally observed that the recent developments in the banking sector had further increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation," Most of the officials preferred rate pause due to collapse of two big banks.
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.40/101. The near-term resistance is 102.80/103.45/104.20.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in May increased to 31% from 27.1% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat despite dovish FOMC meeting minutes. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -57.3% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- bearish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1977, a break below targets of $1969/$1955/$1936.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2000, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2035.
It is good to buy on dips around $1975 with SL around $1955 for TP of $2040/$2070.
