Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1969.05
Kijun-Sen- $1987.10
Gold prices were one of the worst performers this week and lost more than $50 on strong US dollar.US debt ceiling optimism and the chance of one more 25 bpbs rate hike by the Fed putting pressure on the yellow metal. It hits a low of $1952 and is currently trading around $1963.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits by 22000 to 242000 in the week ended May 13th, below the forecast of 253K. US Philly Fed manufacturing index improves to -10.40 vs -19.80 expected.
Major economic data for the day
May 19th, 2023, US Fed Chairman Powell speech (3 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 103/103.60.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 33% from 10.70% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades higher for the past five days on hawkish Fed bets. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -61.70% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1950, a break below targets of $1935/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1970, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $1960 with SL around $1950 for TP of $2070/$2100.
