Ichimoku Analysis (weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2006.80
Kijun-Sen- $1927.64
Gold prices formed a triple bottom around $1935, showing a minor pullback. Markets eye US Federal funds rate for further direction. The minor weakness in the US dollar prevents the yellow metal from further sell-off. It hits a high of $1973.50 yesterday and is currently trading around $1957.07.
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 103.20/102.80. The near-term resistance is 103.85/104.40.
Major economic data for the week
Jun 13th, US CPI (12:30 PM)
Jun 14th, US PPI (12:30 PM)
Jun 15th, ECB monetary policy (12:15 PM GMT)
Core retail sales m/m and Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 PM GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 73.6% from 70.1% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield traded in a narrow range between 3.65% and 3.82% for the past week. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -86% from -71.10%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1935, a break below targets of $1920/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1970 with SL around $1980 for TP of $1920/$1900.
