FxWirePro- Gold Daily Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1946.70

Kijun-Sen- $1953.10

Gold prices lost their shine after US Fed monetary policy.  Fed kept its rates unchanged at 5-5.25%. The central bank has projected the median federal funds rate from 5.1% to 5.6% (three more 25 bpbs rate hikes in 2023). For 2024 it increased from 4.3% to 4.6%. It hits a low of $1940  and is currently trading around $1949.04.

 US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 103/102.70. The near-term resistance is 103.85/104.40.

Major economic data for the week

Jun 15th, ECB monetary policy (12:15 PM GMT)

                US  Core retail sales m/m and Empire State Manufacturing Index  (12:30 PM GMT)

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 71.9% from 50.9% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield gained more than 4% after the Fed policy. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -91.7% from -35%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Mixed  (neutral for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1935, a break below targets of $1920/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.

 It is good to sell on rallies around $1955-57 with SL around $1970 for TP of $1920/$1900.