Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1942.69
Kijun-Sen- $1948.05
Gold prices recovered more than $20 on the weak US dollar. Euro gained momentum yesterday after the ECB hiked rates by 25 bpbs to 3.50%, the highest since 2001. It hits a high of $1962 and is currently trading around $1955.75.
US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 102/101. The near-term resistance is 103/103.85.
US retail sales rose 0.30% in May, compared to an estimate of -0.20%. Core sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, and building materials rose 0.20%. NY Fed Empire state manufacturing index jumps to 6.6 in June vs -15.1 expected.
Major economic data for the week
Jun 16th, Prelim UoM consumer sentiment (2 PM GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 71.9% from 52.8% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains after mixed US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -94% from -35%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1935, a break below targets of $1920/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1960-61 with SL around $1975 for TP of $1920/$1900.
