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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1943.34
Kijun-Sen- $1946.51
Gold prices plunged sharply on the strong US dollar and weak crude oil prices. Markets await the US Fed chairman's testimony today for further direction. He will submit his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress today and tomorrow. Any hawkish tone from the Fed chairman will drag the yellow metal prices further down to $1900. It hits a low of $1929.84 and is currently trading around $1936.05.
US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 102/101. The near-term resistance is 103/103.85.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 76.90% from 60.3% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield consolidated in a narrow range between 3.849% and 3.70% for the past week. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -96% from -35%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1925, a break below targets of $1900/$1880.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1948-50 with SL around $1962 for TP of $1900.
