FxWirePro- Gold Daily Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1940.30

Kijun-Sen- $1943.11

Gold trades in a narrow range between $1987.53 and $1942.50 for the past two weeks. It hits a high of $1982.17 the previous week and is currently trading around  $1954.04.

US Fed hiked rates by 25 bpbs to 5.5% as expected. The central bank said that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and kept its door open for further rate hikes.  US GDP accelerated to a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2, compared to a forecast of 1.8% (negative for gold).  According to the commerce department, the PCE index increased 0.20%, in line with the estimate. Core inflation rose 4.1% YoY, down from 4.6% in May.

Major economic data for the week

Aug 1st, 2023,  US ISM manufacturing PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

Aug 2nd, 2023,  US ADP employment data (12:15 pm GMT)

Aug 3rd, 2023, BOE monetary policy report  (11:00 am GMT)

    US initial jobless claims (12:30 pm GMT)

    US ISM services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

Aug 4th, 2023,  US Non-Farm employment change (12:30 pm GMT)

US dollar index-  Bullish. Minor support around 100.60/99.50. The near-term resistance is 102/103.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep decreased to 81.60% from 80.50% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield trades flat despite weak US PCE index. The  US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -91.50% from -110%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bullish (bearish for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1940, a break below targets of $1930/$1920. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1960, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980

$2000/$2020.

 It is good to sell on rallies around $1970-72 with SL around $1985 for TP of $1900.