Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1940.30
Kijun-Sen- $1943.11
Gold showed a minor sell-off despite weak U jobs data. It hits a low of $1924.70 yesterday and is currently trading around $1938.25.
The US economy has added 187000 jobs in Jul, below the forecast of 205k. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% from 3.6% the previous month. Average hourly earnings m/m increased to 0.40% vs an estimate of 0.30%. According to the Institute of supply management, the US ISM manufacturing index improved to 46 in Jul, below expectations of 46.80.
Majro economnic data for the week
Aug 7th, 2023, FOMC member Harker speech (12:15 pm GMT)
Aug 10th, 2023, US CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Aug 11th, 2023, US PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102/101. The near-term resistance is 103/104.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 86.50% from 80% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some gains after the weak US NFP. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -75 from -110%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1930, a break below targets of $1920/$1900. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1950 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1955/$1970/$1985.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1950 with SL around $1960 for TP of $1900.
