Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1936.32
Kijun-Sen- $1943.11
Gold has traded weak for the past three weeks on a strong US dollar. It hit a low of $1885 yesterday and is currently trading around $1893.50.
US retail sales increased more than anticipated. It rose 0.70%m/m, compared to a forecast of 0.40%.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined by 11000 to 239000 for the week ending Aug 12th, 2023, compared to a forecast of 240000. US Philly fed manufacturing index jumped to 12 vs -10 expected. The FOMC meeting minutes show that the central bank expected to hike rates one more by 25 bpbs to tackle inflation.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102/101. The near-term resistance is 103.50/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 88.5% from 88% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield surged sharply and hit its highest level since 2007. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -67% from -110%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1885, a break below targets of $1847/$1820. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $942/$1950.
It is good to buy on dips around $1890 with SL around $1870 for TP of $1950.
