Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1846.18
Kijun-Sen- $1862.25
Gold continued its previous week's bearish trend and lost more than $20 on the strong US dollar and surging US treasury yield. It hit a low of $1815 yesterday and is currently trading at around $1821.56.
US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 49 for Sep, compared with 47.6 in August.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 106.80/106. The near-term resistance is 107.50/108.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov decreased to 74.30% from 81.5% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield gained sharply in hopes of a Fed rate hike. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -42% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1800, a break below targets of $1785/$1760. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1830 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1850/$1860/$1880.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1838-40 with SL around $1860 for TP of $1787.
