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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1881.76
Kijun-Sen- $1945.98
The gold price was among the best performers the previous week and surged over $100. It hit a high of $1932.98 the previous week and is currently trading at around $1874.29.
The escalation of geopolitical tension between Israel and Palestine has increased the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.US CPI rose 0.40% m/m in Sep 2023 above the estimate of 0.30% and 3.7% a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.30% m/m in Aug and 4.1% YoY. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits remains unchanged at 209000 during the week ending on Oct 7th, 2023. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined to 63 In Oct vs. a Forecast of 67.40.
Major economic data for the day
Oct 16th, 2023, Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)
Oct 17th, 2023, Retail sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Oct 19th, 2023, Fed Powell speech (4:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 105.80/105. The near-term resistance is 106.60/107.50.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 92.90% from 72.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback on geopolitical tension. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -41% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1885, a break below targets of $1870/$1855/$1840/$1830. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1935 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1950/$1970.
It is good to buy on dips around $1900 with SL around $1878 for TP of $1950.
