Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1993.06
Kijun-Sen- $1990.67
Gold trading weak for the third consecutive day ahead of Fed monetary policy. It hit a low of $1975.28 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $1975.70.
Any dovish rate pause will push the yellow metal prices higher. Markets eye development in Middle East as war between Israel and Hamas intensifies.
US CB consumer confidence declined to 102.60 in Oct, compared to a forecast of 100.50. Chicago PMI dropped to 44vs. 45 forecast.
Major Economic data for the day
Nov 1st, 2023, US ISM Manufacturing PMI (2 pm GMT)
Federal funds rate (6 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 105/104.50. The near-term resistance is 107.50/109.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov decreased to 97.70% from 99.20% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades higher ahead of Fed monetary policy. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -16.7% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (Negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1975, a break below targets of $1960/$1950/$1926. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2010 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2048.
It is good to buy on dips around $1970-72 with SL around $1960 for TP of $2000/$2020.
