Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1909.96
Kijun-Sen- $1970.01
Gold was one of the worst performers the previous week. It hit a low of $1933 and is currently trading around $1935.The yellow metal lost its shine after hawkish comments from Powell at the IMF event.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending Nov 4th decreased by 3000 to 217000, above the forecast of 218000. The Michigan Consumer sentiment declined to 60.40 in Nov, compared to a forecast of 64.
Major Economic Data for the Week
Nov 14 th 2023, US Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Nov 15th, 2023. US Core PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Core retail sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)
Nov 16th, 2023, US Initial jobless claims (1:30 pm GMT)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 104.80/104. The near-term resistance is 106.25/107.50.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 86% from 95.2% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback of more than 4% after hitting a multi-week low. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -40% from -16%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (Neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1930, a break below targets of $1900/$1850. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1950 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1957/$1965.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1948-50 with SL around $1962 for TP of $1905.
