FxWirePro- Gold Daily Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (4 Hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $2324.98

Kijun-Sen- $2337

Gold  showed a minor pullback after weak US CPI. But upside is short lived due to hawkish rate pause by Fed. It hit a high of $2341 yesterday  and is currently trading around $2314.05.

Fed left interest r ates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected. Fed dot plot shows that the central bank will cut rstes by 25 bpbs in 2024 and another 100 bpbs in 2025. In the new dot plot, 4 saw no rate cut in 2024, 7 saw one rate cut and 8 saw two rate cuts.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep  increased to 56.70% from 46.80% a day ago.

  US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 104/103. The near-term resistance is 105.50/107.

   Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bearish  (positive for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $2280, a break below the target of $2270/$2250/$2228. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2320 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2340/$2350/$2375.

It is good to sell on rallies around $2315-18 with SL around $2340 for TP of $2252.