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Ichimoku Analysis (4 Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2324.98
Kijun-Sen- $2337
Gold showed a minor pullback after weak US CPI. But upside is short lived due to hawkish rate pause by Fed. It hit a high of $2341 yesterday and is currently trading around $2314.05.
Fed left interest r ates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected. Fed dot plot shows that the central bank will cut rstes by 25 bpbs in 2024 and another 100 bpbs in 2025. In the new dot plot, 4 saw no rate cut in 2024, 7 saw one rate cut and 8 saw two rate cuts.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 56.70% from 46.80% a day ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 104/103. The near-term resistance is 105.50/107.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2280, a break below the target of $2270/$2250/$2228. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2320 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2340/$2350/$2375.
It is good to sell on rallies around $2315-18 with SL around $2340 for TP of $2252.
