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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2408
Kijun-Sen- $2387
Gold gained sharply on board-based US dollar selling. It hit a high of $2439.78 yesterday and is currently trading around $2434.86
Powell's positive comments about inflation “I would say we didn't gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence,”. It increases the chance of a rate cut in Sep.
Market eyes US retail sales today for further direction.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 87.6% from 70.2% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 104/103. The near-term resistance is 105/106.20.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2420, a break below the target of $2400/$2385/$2366/$2350. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2450 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2500.
It is good to buy on dips around $2415-16 with an SL of around $2400 for a TP of $2500.
