FxWirePro- Gold Daily Outlook

Gold trades weak after a massive jump the previous month.  It hit a low of $2628 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2638.

US crude oil prices surged more than 5% as markets anticipated return action by Israel against Iran’s missile attack. This could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz through which major crude export happens. This will push inflation higher.

US 10-year yield surged past 4% for the first time since Aug as a strong labor market will reduce the chance of an aggressive 50 bpbs rate cut by Fed in the November meeting.

US dollar index-

The US dollar index pared some of its gains due to profit booking. Any close above 102.78 confirms a bullish continuation. 

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Nov increased to 88.70% from 63.2% a week ago.

Technical (4 hour chart)-

The yellow metal trades below short-term (34 and 55 EMA ) and above long-term (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart.

The near–term support is around $2624, a break below targets $2610/$2600/$2570/$2560/$2545/$2520/$2470. Major bearish continuation only below $2470.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2650 and a breach above will take it to the next level of  $$2689/$2700.

Indicator (4- hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bearishs

Average directional movement Index - Neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around $2659-60 with SL around $2675 for TP of $2600.