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Gold gained sharply after weak US CPI data. It hit an intraday high of $2948 and is currently trading around $2947.
The constant uncertainty of tariffs, particularly between the EU and the U.S., poses immense economic risk, with a warning sounded by Deutsche Bundesbank's Joachim Nagel that American tariffs will drive Germany into its third year of economic slump. The German car industry is most exposed and the EU has threatened retaliatory tariffs. This creates uncertainty regarding the probability of a global trade war, which can contribute to short-term economic contraction and long-term structural reconfiguration of world trade flows, affecting the monetary policy actions of the ECB. Irrespective of this uncertainty, European markets were found to be resilient
The February 2025 CPI report captured the easing of inflation as the year-on-year rate slipped to 2.8%. Core CPI also declined, increasing 3.1% on a year-on-year basis. Monthly CPI and core CPI both rose by 0.2%. Energy costs likely eased, and food and shelter costs continued to rise but at a reduced pace. The CPI report initially set U.S. stock markets alight. The Federal Reserve is watching inflation closely, although ongoing trade tensions and potential tariff impacts may make policy-making more difficult
Rate Pause Expectations Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in the Mar 19th, 2025 meeting have increased to 97% from 88% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above the short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2920 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2900/42880/$2867/$2850/$2830/$2800/$2770/$2740. The near-term resistance is at $2955, with potential price targets at $2988/$3000.
It is good to buy on dips around $2920 with a stop-loss at $2900 for a target price of $3000.
