Strategy's Bitcoin Fortress Holds Strong: $8K Crash Still Covers Debt

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) said in its Q4 2025 investor materials dated February 5, 2026, that Bitcoin would have to crash to approximately $8,000—an extreme ~90% fall from present values—for its holdings to cease to cover the company's roughly $6 billion net debt. Management stressed this as a really improbable situation, underlining the company's great buffer against even devastating damage. With no margin risks or promises that could cause sales, the Bitcoin is entirely free.

As of February 1, 2026, Strategy owns 713,502 BTC, bought at an average price of $76,052 per coin for a total of $54.26 billion. Given recent prices around $63,800–$65,000, the stack's estimated value is roughly $45.4 to $45.5 billion, representing unrealized losses of $8.5 to $10 billion. Coverage was more than 10x even at the filing-time price of around $84,000; today, the holdings offer plenty of protection well over the $8,000 threshold.

The company raised $25.3 billion in fresh capital in 2025, produced a 22.8% Bitcoin return, and established a $2.25 billion reserve spanning more two years of payments. Q4 recorded an mNAV of 0.85x and a $17.4 billion fair-value accounting loss. Though the balance sheet is still solid in the middle of more general industry distress. Strategy signals faith in ongoing Bitcoin gathering and long-term