Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly Chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1731.08
Kijun-Sen- $1826.30
Gold is trading weak for the second week on surging US treasury yields. The yellow metals lost their shine on expectations of a 75 bpbs rate hike by the Fed. The US inflation for Aug dropped to 8.3% YoY Compared to a forecast of 8.1%. Core CPI surged 0.6% over the month, to an annual rate of 6.3.US retail sales rose 0.3% mom, above expectations of 0%. Core sales ex-auto dropped -0.3% mom vs. estimate of 0%. US NY Fed empire state manufacturing index improved to -1.5 in Sep vs forecast of-12.70
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Sep dropped to 82% from 91% a week ago.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index – Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1650, a close below targets $1620/$1598.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1680, breach above will take it to the next level of $1720/$1735. Minor bullish continuation only if it breaks $1740.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1680-82 with SL around $1700 for TP of $1610.
