FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1926.78

Kijun-Sen- $2015.25

Gold prices lost its shine despite weak US economic data. It hits a low of $1992.50 and is currently trading around $2004.80.

Economic data previous week

US CPI m/m came at 0.1% in Mar, below the estimate of 0.20%. The yearly inflation rose 5% last month, compared to a forecast of 5.1%.US PPI m/m slumped by 0.50% in Mar, below the estimate of 0.0%. The yearly inflation rose 2.70% last month, compared to a forecast of 3%.

The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 11000 in the week ending Apr 8 to 239000, the highest since Jan 2022. In Mar, retail sales fell by -1%, and core retail sales dropped by -0.80%.

Significant economic data for the Week

Apr 20th, 2023  US Initial jobless claims  (12:30 pm GMT).

 Philly Fed manufacturing (2:00 pm)

Existing Home Sales (2:00 pm)

Apr 21st, 2023 US Flash manufacturing PMI  (1:45 pm GMT)

US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 100.75/100. The near-term resistance is 101.60/102.15.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in May increased to 80.90% from 71.2% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield gained in hopes of a 25 bpbs rate hike in the May 3rd meeting. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -59.7% from -108%.

  Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- bearish (negative for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1980, a break below targets of $1969/$1955.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2020; a breach above will take it to the next level of $2050/$2070.

  It is good to buy on dips around $1980 with SL around $1960 for TP of $2040/$2070.