FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1942.97

Kijun-Sen- $1942.97

Gold hits an all-time high despite hawkish comments from the Fed. It hit a high of $2146 and is currently trading around $2086.59.

US ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.70 compared to a forecast of 47.90. The annual core PCE index rose 3.5%, in line with the estimate. Every month, the core PCE index came at 0.20% slightly below the previous month's 0.30%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 7000 to 218000 last week below the forecast of 219000. US CB consumer confidence rose to 102 in  Nov, compared to a forecast of 101. Richmond manufacturing activity slowed in Nov to -5 vs. Estimate 1.

Major economic data for the day

 Dec 5th, 2023,  ISM services manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

Dec 6th, 2023, ADP employment change (1:15 pm GMT)

Dec 7th, 2023, US Initial jobless claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Dec 8th, 2023, NFP employment change  (1:30 pm GMT)

                       Unemployment rate

US dollar index-   Bearish. Minor support around 102/100. The near-term resistance is 104/105.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Dec increased to 97.70% from 95.5% a week ago.

 Despite the US fed chairman's hawkish comments, the US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to  -34% from -52%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Weak (positive for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $2070, a break below targets of $2050/$2030/$2000. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2150 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2200/$2225.

 It is good to buy on dips around $2050 with SL around $2030 for TP of $2150.