Ichimoku Analysis (Monthly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1842.71
Kijun-Sen- $1842.71
Gold pared most of its gains made in the first quarter on a hawkish Fed rate hike. The central bank raised rates by 425 basis points this year to tackle inflation. US inflation peaked in June at 9.1% and started to decline by 7.1%. In 2023 Fed is expected to change its policy stance from aggressive to normal. It will have a positive impact on the yellow metal. The renewed spread of the coronavirus in China will increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The yellow metal hits a high of $2070 and is currently trading around $1798.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102. The near-term resistance is at 104.60/106.10.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Feb rose to 36.60% from 25% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield rose more than 185% from a low of 1.514% this year. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -58 basis points from -77 bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index – Bearish (Positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1760, a break below targets of $1700/$1660. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1843, breach above will take it to the next level of $1900$2000.
It is good to buy on dips around $1680-85 with SL around $1600 for TP of $1800/$1900.
