Gold is consolidating after hitting 5- week low of $1281 despite strong US dollar.The dollar gained against all majors after ECB trims its growth forecast. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: Bullish. DXY trades higher and jumped more than 80 pips from low of 96.89.The index has recovered sharply from bottom of 95.82.It is facing strong resistance 97.71 and any break above confirms further bullishness and a jump till 98/98.60 likely (negative for for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY has lost more than 60 pips after forming top around 112.13 level.It is currently trading around 111.43. The near term resistance is around 112.20 and any break above targets 112.60/113. negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield is trading lower for 4th consecutive day and has declined more than 4.5% from high of 2.77%.The near term support is around 2.619%.The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.711%. positive for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.48%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 16bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1290 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1300/$1312.40 (20- day MA)/$1316.The yellow metal should break above $1365 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1280 and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1271/$1265.
It is good to buy above $1290 with SL around $1284 for the TP of $1312.
