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• NZD/USD eased on Friday as investors shifted their focus to the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting next week.
•The RBNZ is expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, after cutting 225 basis points over the past year.
• Analysts are watching whether the RBNZ maintains mid-2027 as the projected timing for the first hike, with attention on comments from new Governor Anna Breman.
•Market pricing suggests a sooner hike, with a 76% probability of an OCR increase in September and a full 2.5% rate expected by October as the economy recovers.
• The RBNZ’s survey of economists and business leaders showed inflation expectations rising to 2.59% for the year ahead, the highest since mid-2024, highlighting potential upward pressure on rates.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6080(23.6%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6100(Psychological level).
•Support is seen at 0.5990 (38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5975(SMA 20).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6030 with stop loss of 0.5930 and target price of 0.6120
