• The NZD/USD slipped slightly on Friday as the US dollar recovered sightly, ending its eight-session losing run.
• New Zealand March electronic card retail sales showed a modest improvement, rising +0.7% month-on-month and +2.7% compared to March 2025, suggesting steady but not strong domestic consumption momentum.
• The upcoming New Zealand Q1 CPI release on Tuesday is now the key near-term driver for NZD, as it will heavily influence Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate expectations and the policy outlook.
• Geopolitical headlines remained in focus, with Donald Trump stating that Israel and Lebanon will pause hostilities for 10 days, helping to stabilize risk sentiment but not fully removing uncertainty.
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams flagged inflation risks linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, reinforcing concerns that geopolitical tensions could keep global price pressures elevated.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5912(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5947(Higher BB).
•Support is seen at 0.5837(61.8%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5804(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.5880 with stop loss of 0.5800 and target price of 0.5950
