• NZD/USD strengthened on Thursday as the U.S. dollar struggled to gain momentum, despite stronger-than-expected jobs data reducing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• U.S. payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, the largest rise in over a year, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, indicating a stabilizing labor market at the start of 2026.
• The strong data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold for now, with markets shifting bets for the next rate cut to July from June.
• Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next week and is considered certain to leave rates at 2.25%, having cut by a total 225 basis points over the past year or so.
•Investors are focused on whether the central bank still expects a first hike in mid-2027. Markets imply a 76% chance of a September increase, with a move to 2.5% fully priced for October.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6080(23.6%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6100(Psychological level).
•Support is seen at 0.5990 (38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5975(SMA 20).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6030 with stop loss of 0.5930 and target price of 0.6120
