• NZD/USD firmed on Wednesday as the pair found underlying demand following Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected Q1 CPI release.
• Stronger-than-expected Q1 CPI data reinforced the view that inflation pressures remain persistent and could warrant further tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
•Tehran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.
• Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 51.2% probability of a rate hike at the May RBNZ meeting, indicating a divided market outlook but still leaning toward additional policy tightening..
• On the geopolitical front, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance cancelled his planned Pakistan visit, while Donald Trump signaled that the Iran ceasefire would be extended indefinitely, adding to uncertainty around the broader geopolitical trajectory.
• Meanwhile, Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and described the U.S. naval presence as a hostile act, heightening concerns over global trade routes and energy supply risks.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5919(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5969(Higher BB).
•Support is seen at 0.5886(Daily low) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5838(50%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.5900 with stop loss of 0.5850 and target price of 0.5960
