• NZD/USD hovered near six-month low on Wednesday as investors digested comments from RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway.
• A senior official said on Wednesday that New Zealand’s central bank may consider additional rate cuts if needed but will wait to evaluate future economic indicators first.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Chief Economist Paul Conway described this month’s 50-basis-point reduction in interest rates to 2.5% as “very finely balanced,” citing inflation’s proximity to the upper limit of the 1%–3% target band.
• Markets imply around an 83% probability of a rate cut to 2.25% in November, with some betting on a terminal rate of 2%.
•Despite the day’s modest uptick, NZD/USD remains locked in a firm downtrend since early July, suggesting that downside risks are not yet exhausted.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5764(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5796(SMA 20).
• Support is seen at 0.5689(23.6%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5669(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5740 with stop loss of 0.5800 and target price of 0.5680
