FxWirePro: NZD/USD rebounds modestly but outlook is still bearish

• NZD/USD firmed  on Friday  as a sharp fall in Treasury yields restrained the greenback across the board.

  •Modest rebound suggesting that buyers are attempting to defend the pair against further declines. However, the recovery remains fragile amid persistent bearish pressure and uncertainty surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy outlook.

• The pair has fallen approximately 6.4% since August 21, reflecting sustained selling pressure. A decisive break below the Oct 2026 low of 0.5581 could accelerate the decline toward the next major support level at 0.5485, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens

• Interest-rate futures currently imply a 57.3% probability of an RBNZ rate hike at the October 28 meeting.

• Market participants remain focused on inflation developments, economic activity and labour-market conditions to assess whether policymakers will tighten monetary policy further.

•  Immediate resistance is located at 0.5630 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5634(Higher BB).

•  Support is seen at 0.5607 (SMA20) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5581 (Oct 25th low ).

 Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5630  with stop loss of 0.5700 and target price of 0.5550